Conference Board consumer confidence index rises 7.5 points to 91.7 in October

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index climbed 7.5 points in October to 91.7, from 84.2 in September, the business research group said Tuesday, Oct. 27. The index is set so that 1985 equals 100. The September reading was revised slightly higher than first reported; the release does not give the earlier figure.¹²

The October numbers are preliminary. They come from responses collected Oct. 1 to Oct. 21, the cutoff date for the preliminary results, in an online survey that Toluna conducts for the Conference Board.¹²

The two components

• The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4.¹
• The Expectations Index rose 6.9 points to 72.6. The board said the gain only partly undid three straight monthly declines.¹²

Among the details, 26.7% of respondents described jobs as “plentiful,” up from 24.3%, while 21.4% said jobs were “hard to get,” unchanged from September. The share calling business conditions good rose to 21.4% from 18.8%, and the share calling them bad fell to 17.8% from 20.0%. Looking ahead six months, 20.7% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 25.2%, and 26.3% expected fewer jobs, down from 27.6%.¹

What the board's economist said

Fergus McCormick, senior economist for global indicators at the Conference Board, said the October gain was “driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions.” In a separate remark, McCormick said the recovery “was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October.” The release attributes that statement to him and does not include gasoline price figures.¹

McCormick also said that, despite the increase, confidence “remained on the long-term downward trend” of recent years. He said consumers planned to spend less on services and durable goods over the next six months, which he said “likely reflected higher price levels and persistent inflation.”¹

In write-in answers, McCormick said, consumers “continued to express frustration with rising costs,” and mentions of prices, food and groceries, and oil and diesel prices increased. He said comments about war and conflict declined for a second month but stayed elevated, and mentions of jobs as a concern rose slightly.¹

Prices, recession and plans

Average 12-month inflation expectations fell in October and stood at 5.8%, according to the release. Asked how likely a U.S. recession is in the next 12 months, consumers most often answered “somewhat likely”; the board said that question is not part of the index calculation. More consumers expected stock prices to rise than fall over the next 12 months. The share planning a vacation in the next six months was 43.3%, down from an upwardly revised 44.2% in September.¹²

What the records do not show

• The release does not give September's originally reported index level, or say whether September's Present Situation or Expectations readings were revised.¹
• It does not give September's average inflation expectation, only that October's figure was lower.¹
• It does not give gasoline price data or any measure of a link between gasoline prices and the index.¹
• It does not give a numerical breakdown of the recession-likelihood answers.¹
• October's figures are preliminary and may be revised in next month's release.¹