Treasury estimates $618 billion in October-December borrowing, $10 billion below its August figure, and $800 billion for January-March

The Treasury Department said on Monday, Nov. 2, that it expects to borrow $618 billion in privately-held net marketable debt during the October-December 2026 quarter, assuming a cash balance of $850 billion at the end of December.¹

For the January-March 2027 quarter, Treasury said it expects to borrow $800 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $1.000 trillion. The release does not compare that figure with an earlier estimate.¹

How the estimate changed since August

Treasury said the October-December estimate is “$10 billion lower than announced in August 2026.” Its August release, dated Aug. 3, put borrowing for the quarter at $628 billion with the same assumed end-of-December balance of $850 billion.¹²

The new release gives the main reason as a starting cash balance above what Treasury assumed, with lower projected net cash flows pulling partly the other way. Setting aside that higher starting balance, Treasury said, the estimate is “$24 billion higher than announced in August.”¹

The release's cash balance table shows the August assumption and the current one, in billions of dollars:¹

• July-September closing balance: $950 prior, $984 current
• October-December opening balance: $950 prior, $984 current
• October-December closing balance: $850 prior, $850 current

The quarter that just ended

Treasury said it borrowed $742 billion in privately-held net marketable debt during the July-September 2026 quarter and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $984 billion. In August, it had estimated borrowing of $739 billion and assumed an end-of-September balance of $950 billion.¹²

The release refers to “$4 billion in higher” borrowing. It gives the main reason as a quarter-end cash balance above what Treasury assumed, with higher net cash flows working the other way. Setting aside that higher closing balance, Treasury said, actual borrowing “was $30 billion lower than announced in August.”¹

What the figures measure

According to the release's footnotes, privately-held net marketable borrowing leaves out rollovers of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account, known as SOMA, and counts financing required by SOMA redemptions. The footnotes say new issuance replaces securities bought back, so Treasury does not expect buybacks to move the figure significantly.¹

The release gives no deficit figure and no count of total federal debt, and the borrowing estimates are neither. A cash balance is a separate measure, an amount on hand on a given date.¹

What comes next

Treasury said that “additional financing details” for its quarterly refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 4.¹ Its refunding page lists Feb. 1, 2027, as the next date for financing estimates.³

Separate Fed survey of bank lending

The Federal Reserve's October 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, on a page last updated Nov. 2, generally covers the third quarter and drew responses from 61 domestic banks and 18 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. It does not address Treasury borrowing.⁴

Banks reported that standards for commercial and industrial loans to large and middle-market firms “were basically unchanged,” while standards tightened for such loans to small firms. They also reported “weaker demand, on net, for C&I loans from firms of all sizes.”⁴

What the records do not show

• The refunding details due Nov. 4, including auction sizes, had not been released at the time of writing.¹
• The release gives no dollar figure for the changes in net cash flows it cites, and it does not itemize what drove them.¹
• The published July-September figures, $742 billion and $739 billion, are $3 billion apart, while the release says $4 billion and Treasury's sources and uses table lists the revision as 4. Neither explains the gap or carries a rounding note; each number appears here as Treasury wrote it.¹²⁵
• The Fed's survey page shows a last-update date, not a separate release date. We read the survey's summary text, not its full data tables.⁴