Republican candidates lead 59 of 91 contested Florida House races and 12 of 19 in the state Senate; one race is in recount range, and all 23 justices and judges top 50%

Republican candidates lead 59 of the 91 contested Florida House races and 12 of the 19 contested state Senate races, and Democratic candidates lead the other 32 and seven, by SignalData’s count of the state’s unofficial returns as Florida Election Watch showed them at about 4 p.m. Wednesday.¹² That count matches the state’s Legislative Projection table.³ The state’s page showed 100% of precincts reporting statewide.⁴

Chamber totals

The state’s “Projected Total” adds those contested leads to its “uncontested” seats. For the House, that is 70 Republicans and 50 Democrats; the 29 uncontested seats, split 11 and 18, match the unopposed candidates on the Division of Elections’ list.³⁵ The 50 includes the Democratic lead in District 33, which the House’s website showed as “Pending Election” while listing 70 Republicans and 49 Democrats for the new term.⁶

For the Senate, it gives 25 Republicans, 14 Democrats and zero “Other” across 39 seats, leaving out vacant District 39.³ By SignalData’s comparison, the 20 uncontested seats, split 13 and seven, are 18 not on this ballot and two with unopposed candidates, in Districts 4 and 16.⁵⁷ The Senate’s website listed 25 Republicans, 13 Democrats and one senator with no party affiliation, Jason Pizzo of District 37, for 2026-2028.⁷ That list puts 13 Republicans, six Democrats and Pizzo in those 20 seats, so by SignalData’s subtraction the table’s 14 counts District 37 as Democratic.

Closest races

State law requires a recount when unofficial returns show a margin of one-half of a percent or less of the votes cast, unless the trailing candidate asks in writing that none be made.⁸ A manual recount of overvotes and undervotes follows at one-quarter of a percent or less on a second set of returns.⁹ Margins are SignalData’s calculation, lead divided by total votes. Only District 33 falls within the half-point threshold, and it is outside the quarter-point one.

• House District 33: Daniel R. McDow (D) 36,394, 50.19%; Monique Miller (R) 36,120, 49.81%. Margin 274 votes, 0.38 point.
• Senate District 12: Colleen Burton (R) 93,924, 50.35%; Alfred Reynolds (D) 92,605, 49.65%. Margin 1,319, 0.71 point.
• Senate District 38: Alexis Maria Calatayud (R) 92,939, 49.52%; Richard Lamondin Jr. (D) 91,363, 48.68%. Margin 1,576, 0.84 point.
• House District 85: Anthony Bonna (R) 42,894, 50.25%; Wayne Richter (D) 42,112, 49.33%. Margin 782, 0.92 point.

All other races had wider margins.¹² The state’s timeline makes noon Nov. 7 the deadline for the unofficial returns that decide a machine recount.¹⁰ Florida Today’s story, updated at 11:39 a.m. Wednesday, said no recount announcement had been made in District 33.¹¹

Merit retention

All 23 justices and judges on the ballot drew yes majorities, the constitution’s standard for retention.¹² Justice Carlos G. Muñiz of the Florida Supreme Court had 4,296,744 yes votes (57.69%) and 3,150,945 no votes (42.31%).¹³ Yes percentages for the 22 district court of appeal judges:¹⁴

• First District: Joseph Lewis Jr. 60.65%, Rachel Nordby 58.79%, Tim Osterhaus 57.93%, Clay Roberts 57.75%, Raymond Treadwell 58.49%
• Second: Drew Atkinson 62.34%, Morris Silberman 65.6%, Daniel H. Sleet 62.37%, Andrea Teves Smith 65.17%
• Third: Kansas R. Gooden 59.38%, Monica Gordo 62.3%, Fleur Jeannine Lobree 60.93%, Thomas Logue 62.36%, Bronwyn Catherine Miller 60.1%
• Fourth: Alan O. Forst 55.74%, Mark W. Klingensmith 54.86%, Johnathan D. Lott 55.83%, Shannon K. Shaw 57.2%, Caroline Cahill Shepherd 58.02%
• Fifth: John M. Harris 64.24%, Scott D. Makar 63.32%, F. Rand Wallis 62.78%

What the records do not show

• No record SignalData opened, including the Department of State’s press release page, shows a recount ordered.¹⁵
• These counts are unofficial. The Elections Canvassing Commission is scheduled to certify on Nov. 17.¹⁰
• The state’s table names no seats and gives no reason for its District 37 count.
• The status page marks provisional ballots not completed in 60 of 67 counties and 10-day overseas ballots in 64, without saying how many remain.⁴