Treasury offers $125 billion at November refunding, keeps auction sizes and removes “at least” from its guidance

The Treasury Department said Wednesday, Nov. 4, it will sell $125 billion of securities next week, Reuters reported.¹ TechStock² reported that the sale replaces about $97 billion of maturing debt and that about $28 billion is new cash from private investors.²

Reuters reported that Treasury dropped “at least” from its guidance and expects to keep floating rate note and coupon auction sizes unchanged “for the next several quarters.”¹ Treasury's Aug. 5 statement said it anticipated maintaining those sizes “for at least the next several quarters.”³

The offering

• 3-year note: $58 billion; auction Monday, Nov. 9
• 10-year note: $42 billion; auction Tuesday, Nov. 10
• 30-year bond: $25 billion; auction Thursday, Nov. 12

Amounts are from Reuters. Dates are from Treasury's tentative schedule, which has all three settling Monday, Nov. 16.¹⁴ The August refunding was also $125 billion, against about $96.3 billion maturing, and raised about $28.7 billion in new cash.³

What Treasury said about future auctions

According to Reuters, Treasury said it will weigh future size changes against trends in structural demand.¹

Other changes and plans

• 7-year note: Reuters reported it becomes a quarterly auction with two reopenings. The report gives no start date.¹
• Bills: Reuters reported Treasury expects lower short-term bill sizes in December and higher sizes in January.¹
• Buybacks: up to $70 billion for liquidity support, per Reuters and Treasury's schedule, and up to $25 billion for cash management on that schedule. August's figures were up to $38 billion and up to $25 billion.¹⁵³
• Cash: Treasury's Nov. 2 estimates assume an $850 billion balance at the end of December.⁶

Treasury's Nov. 2 estimates put October-December privately-held net marketable borrowing at $618 billion.⁶ The next refunding documents are scheduled for Feb. 3, 2027.⁷

What the advisory committee's table shows

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee's table lists its recommended sizes for the November-January quarter. Values are in billions of dollars. The nominal coupon and floating rate note sizes match the same months in Treasury's Aug. 5 statement:⁸³

• November: 2-year 69, 3-year 58, 5-year 70, 7-year 44, 10-year 42, 20-year 16, 30-year 25, floating rate note 28
• December: same, except 10-year 39, 20-year 13, 30-year 22
• January: same as December, except floating rate note 30
• Inflation-protected securities: 19 in November, 24 in December and 21 in January

Its provisional rows keep nominal coupon and floating rate note sizes at those levels through April 2027. The table says it “does not indicate how Treasury will actually issue debt.”⁸

What the records do not show

• We could not open Treasury's Nov. 4 statement, the committee's report or its minutes, all listed on Treasury's refunding page. Nov. 4 wording and figures not linked to another record here come from the news reports cited.⁷
• No record we opened explains why “at least” was removed.³⁸
• The auctions have not taken place. The refunding page lists these documents as released at 8:30 a.m.⁷
• We did not read in full the charts Treasury and the committee presented.⁷