Inflation expectations held at 3.9% in October as odds of higher unemployment reached highest since April 2020, New York Fed survey shows

U.S. households’ median inflation expectations were unchanged in October at 3.9% one year ahead, 3.3% three years ahead and 3.0% five years ahead, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported Monday, Nov. 9, in its Survey of Consumer Expectations.¹ The mean probability respondents assigned to the U.S. unemployment rate being higher one year from now rose 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%, the highest reading since April 2020, the release said. The New York Fed said the increase was driven by respondents without a college degree.¹

The survey was fielded from Oct. 1 through Oct. 31. The changes below are from the prior month’s survey, as the release gives them.¹

Prices

• Gas: median expected price change over the next year down 0.6 percentage point to 4.2%.
• Food: unchanged at 5.5%.
• Medical care: up 0.1 percentage point to 9.3%.
• College education: up 0.1 percentage point to 7.6%.
• Rent: up 0.9 percentage point to 7.7%.
• Home prices: median expected growth unchanged at 3.0%, compared with a 12-month trailing average of 3.1%.¹

Jobs and earnings

• Expected earnings growth over the next year: median unchanged at 2.6%, compared with a 12-month trailing average of 2.7%.
• Probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months: mean up 0.4 percentage point to 13.9%, compared with a 12-month trailing average of 14.3%.
• Probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months: mean down 0.5 percentage point to 19.4%, compared with a 12-month trailing average of 18.4%.
• Probability of finding a job if one’s current job were lost: mean up 0.4 percentage point to 46.5%, the highest since November 2025.¹

Household finances

• Expected household income growth: median down 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%. The release said the series has stayed between 2.8% and 3.1% since June 2025.
• Expected household spending growth over the next year: median down 0.2 percentage point to 5.3%, compared with a 12-month trailing average of 5.0%.
• Probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months: average up 1.6 percentage points to 13.8%, the highest since December 2025.
• Expected change in taxes at one’s current income over the next year: median up 0.1 percentage point to 3.8%, the highest since December 2025.
• Probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will be higher in 12 months: mean up 1.3 percentage points to 31.6%, the highest since April 2023.
• Probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher in 12 months: mean down 0.2 percentage point to 40.0%.¹

The release said perceptions of credit access compared with a year earlier and expectations for future credit availability were roughly unchanged. The net share of respondents reporting a better financial situation than a year earlier increased, and expectations for households’ financial situations a year from now were roughly unchanged.¹

What the records do not show

• The Survey of Consumer Expectations measures what respondents expect. It does not measure actual inflation, unemployment, job losses or missed debt payments.¹
• The New York Fed describes the survey as a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads, who take part for up to 12 months. The release does not give a margin of error.¹
• The release does not say why expectations changed, apart from attributing the rise in unemployment expectations to respondents without a college degree.¹
• Where the release gives a change, it does not state the September level, and SignalData does not report one. SignalData read the press release and did not open the survey’s underlying data files.¹